The following analysis is only a summary of personal views and experience, and does not constitute investment advice. The market is changing rapidly, and it is necessary to pay attention to risk control.
I. Overview of the disk
As shown in the screenshot (roughly hovering around 102,000 USDT), Bitcoin has recently fallen from a first-line high of 110,000 USDT, and there has been a more obvious adjustment at the daily level. From the K line and the volume of cooperation, there are several points worth attention:
- Price correction interval:
The highest point was around 110,000 USDT, followed by a shock down, and the current daily close is above 102,000 USDT.
The intraday low is around 101,886 USDT, indicating that the short term is still contested in the upper and lower 102,000 range.
- Volume change:
The overall trading volume was significantly enlarged at a high level, and then fell in the shock stage.
The recent sharp drop in volume suggests that the short force is dominant or some bulls are leaving the market.
- Short-term trends:
The 4-hour / 1-hour period shows that the price fluctuates repeatedly in the 105,000 ~ 106,000 USDT area, followed by an accelerated decline, and a long negative line crosses the 103,000 ~ 102,500 area.
At present, the short-term is in a downward trend, if the price can not quickly recover 103,000 ~ 104,000 USDT area, short-term bearish thinking is still dominant.
Second, short-term trading ideas
- Take advantage of the trend
Trend short:
If 102,000 USDT can not stand firm, or even fall below the key support range of 101,800 ~ 101,500, then the probability of continuing to explore in the short term increases, and you can consider the trend short.
It is recommended to place the stop loss above 103,000 ~ 103,300 (that is, above the starting and falling point of the latest large negative line), and make reasonable Settings according to your position and risk control.
The target position can first look at the former low (about 100,000 ~ 99,500), if the volume is broken, then look at the lower gear support (98,000 ~ 95,000).
Rally short:
If the price continues to rise, but the amount can be relatively limited, it is difficult to break through the previous decline starting point of 103,500 ~ 104,000 area, you can also intervene in short orders when the rebound is weak.
Stop loss can also refer to the previous high near, such as 104,000 ~ 104,500 above.
Pay attention to the short – term short – line is the best shape or volume price structure to confirm the “high fall”, then enter.
- Think shorter
Bobo short-term rebound:
At present, the obvious trend is still a pullback, and the rally must be in the clear signal of overfall or key support to stabilize before light position attempt. You can pay attention to the area of 100,000 ~ 99,500 (if you see a significant long downward line after a rapid fall or a sharp increase in trading volume, showing panic selling clearance), and then use small stop loss light position to make a long rebound.
The stop loss can be configured according to your own risk control by referring to the lower edge of the area or 1-2 points further down.
Rebound target first look at 102,000 ~ 103,000 area to reduce positions or profit.
- Risk control and precautions
- Strict stop loss:
Contract short-term trading volatility, once the direction of the wrong judgment should be timely stop losses, do not carry the single.
- Location Management:
It is recommended to light warehouse test order, batch layout, do not fill the warehouse at one time.
- Focus on the big picture and emotions:
Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset, and big names or news often cause sharp rises and falls. Pay close attention to market sentiment and large capital movements during the day, and reduce frequent operations if necessary.
- Summary of key points:
Short term trend is short, short can take advantage of the trend.
If there is a strong pull back to a firm key position, it can also be short and rebound.
Key price: The upper 103,000 ~ 104,000 is the short-term bearish divide, and the lower 100,000 ~ 99,500 is the possible strong support area.
Conclusion: At present, Bitcoin is still in a correction trend, and the operation can tend to rebound and short or break the idea of following the empty; If the price shows a clear signal of stabilization, it can also rebound lightly. No matter whether you are long or short, you need to do a good job of risk control and strict stop loss. After all, short-term trading faces high volatility and uncertainty, and should be treated with caution.
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